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Epic Research Daily Agri Commodity Report Of 17 May 2018

, 17 May 2018 -- The Coffee Board has calculated around 10% drop in the final figure of the coffee crop in the country in 2017-18 over the post blossom estimate it made earlier during the year.

Procurement season 2017-2018, witnessed record procurement of 87.20 lakh metric tonnes of Wheat by Haryana state agencies, higher than the previous record of 87.16 lakh metric tonnes procured in 2012-13. State has recorded an all-time high Wheat procurement since the inception of the state in 1966. Haryana was targeting Wheat arrival of over 75 lakh tonnes during this Rabi season. The procurement had begun on April 1 in the state. Over 35.15 lakh metric tonnes has been procured by Haryana State Co-operative Supply and Marketing Federation Limited (HAFED), whereas Food, Civil Supplies and Consumer Affairs Department has purchased over 26.17 lakh MT of wheat.

The Coffee Board's final crop estimate based on crop harvest for 2017-18 is placed at 316,000 tonnes comprising 95,000 tonnes of arabica and 221,000 tonnes of robusta. There is an overall decline of 34,400 tonnes (-9.82%) over the post blossom estimate of 2017-18 which projected 350,400 tonnes, said a statement from the board. The board said during the year, the arabica production declined by 7.86% and robusta by 10.63% over the post blossom crop estimate. However, when compared to final crop of previous year 2016- 17, there is a marginal increase of 4000 tonnes. Among the states, the final estimate for Karnataka, the largest producer, is placed at 222,300 tonnes comprising 69,025 tonnes of arabica and 153,275 tonnes of robusta, recording overall drop of 11.70% over the post-blossom estimate of 2017-18.

The world 2018/19 Cotton projections show a decline in stocks of 4.5 million bales, as consumption once again exceeds production. As per USDA forecast global production is expected to fall marginally, as area declines 1 percent. Lower production in the United States, Australia, and China is nearly offset by higher expected crops in Pakistan, Turkey, and Brazil. Global consumption is projected to rise 3.9 percent to a new record high, as a growing world economy drives mill use higher around the world. Projected world trade is raised from 2017/18, as import-oriented consumers such as Vietnam and Bangladesh are accounting for a larger share of world consumption, and China’s imports rise.

Economic News

India's edible oil imports for the year to October 2018 may be nearly flat on 2017 as a weaker rupee adds to the impact of a tax hike on the country's most imported edible oil, a Mumbai-based trade body said, revising down earlier forecasts. Refiners are still able to import soft oils such as soyoil and sunflower oil at a profit, but imports of palm, which attracts the country's biggest import duty, have been hard hit, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA). "Traders are facing great difficulties and the pipelines are getting dry. Excess imports have reduced," said Mehta. SEA had reduced its forecast for edible oil imports for the current marketing year to end-October, originally at 15.8 million to 16 million tonnes, by about half a million tonnes, he said. This would put imports at just over 2017's 15.1 million tonnes. Palm oil accounts for more than half of India's total edible oil imports. India raised import taxes on crude and refined palm oil in March to the highest level in over a decade to support local farmers. Malaysian palm exports to India slumped nearly 40 percent in April on-month, while shipments in the first half of May fell to 15,000 tonnes from 89,000 tonnes, cargo surveyor data showed.

The Coffee Board has calculated around 10% drop in the final figure of the coffee crop in the country in 2017-18 over the post blossom estimate it made earlier during the year. The final crop estimate based on crop harvest for 2017-18 is placed at 316,000 tonnes comprising 95,000 tonnes of arabica and 221,000 tonnes of robusta. There is an overall decline of 34,400 MT (-9.82%) over the post blossom estimate of 2017-18 which projected 350,400 tonnes, said a statement from the board. However, it is still higher compared with the estimates of the coffee growers who have said the robusta crop could be around 200,000 tonnes. In the case of arabica, the board calculation is more or less close to their estimate. The board said during the year, the arabica production declined by 7.86% and robusta by 10.63% over the post blossom crop estimate. However, when compared to final crop of previous year 2016-17, there is a marginal increase of 4000 tonnes

Trading Recommendations

SELL CORIANDER JUN BELOW 4860 TARGET 4830/4790/4740 SL 4910
BUY TMC JUN ABOVE 7400 TARGET 7430/7470/7520 SL 7350
SELL GUARGUM5 JUN BELOW 8400 TARGET 8370/8330/8280 SL 8450

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Submitted by Epic Research, Epic Research Pvt.Ltd indore on Thursday, 17 May 2018 at 2:43 PM
Category: Business
 
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